Vallejos, CA;
Steel, MFJ;
(2017)
Bayesian survival modelling of university outcomes.
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society)
, 180
(2)
pp. 613-631.
10.1111/rssa.12211.
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Abstract
Dropouts and delayed graduations are critical issues in higher education systems world wide. A key task in this context is to identify risk factors associated with these events, providing potential targets for mitigating policies. For this, we employ a discrete time competing risks survival model, dealing simultaneously with university outcomes and its associated temporal component. We define survival times as the duration of the student's enrolment at university and possible outcomes as graduation or two types of dropout (voluntary and involuntary), exploring the information recorded at admission time (e.g. educational level of the parents) as potential predictors. Although similar strategies have been previously implemented, we extend the previous methods by handling covariate selection within a Bayesian variable selection framework, where model uncertainty is formally addressed through Bayesian model averaging. Our methodology is general; however, here we focus on undergraduate students enrolled in three selected degree programmes of the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile during the period 2000–2011. Our analysis reveals interesting insights, highlighting the main covariates that influence students’ risk of dropout and delayed graduation.
Type: | Article |
---|---|
Title: | Bayesian survival modelling of university outcomes |
Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
DOI: | 10.1111/rssa.12211 |
Publisher version: | http://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12211 |
Language: | English |
Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
Keywords: | Bayesian model averaging; Competing risks; Delayed graduation; Proportionalodds model; University dropout |
UCL classification: | UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Statistical Science |
URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1555810 |
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