UCL logo

UCL Discovery

UCL home » Library Services » Electronic resources » UCL Discovery

Patterns of mammalian population decline inform conservation action

Di Fonzo, MMI; Collen, B; Chauvenet, ALM; Mace, GM; (2016) Patterns of mammalian population decline inform conservation action. Journal of Applied Ecology , 53 (4) pp. 1046-1054. 10.1111/1365-2664.12659. Green open access

[img]
Preview
Text
Di Fonzo et al_Predicting decline dynamics_resubmission_Jan2016.pdf - ["content_typename_Submitted version" not defined]

Download (812kB) | Preview

Abstract

Summary Evaluations of wildlife population dynamics have the potential to convey valuable information on the type of pressure affecting a population and could help predict future changes in the population's trajectory. Greater understanding of different patterns of population declines could provide a useful mechanism for assessing decline severity in the wild and identifying those populations that are more likely to exhibit severe declines. We identified 93 incidences of decline within 75 populations of mammalian species using a time-series analysis method. These included linear, quadratic convex (accelerating) declines, exponential concave (decelerating) declines and quadratic concave declines (representing recovering populations). Excluding linear declines left a data set of 85 declines to model the relationship between each decline-curve type and a range of biological, anthropogenic and time-series descriptor explanatory variables. None of the decline-curve types were spatially or phylogenetically clustered. The only characteristic that could be consistently associated with any curve type was the time at which they were more likely to occur within a time series. Quadratic convex declines were more likely to occur at the start of the time series, while recovering curve shapes (quadratic concave declines) were more likely at the end of the time series. Synthesis and applications. The ability to link certain factors with specific decline dynamics across a number of mammalian populations is useful for management purposes as it provides decision-makers with potential triggers upon which to base their conservation actions. We propose that the identification of quadratic convex declines could be used as an early-warning signal of potentially severe decline dynamics. For such a population, increased population monitoring effort should be deployed to diagnose the cause of its decline and avert possible extinctions. Conversely, the presence of a quadratic concave decline suggests that the population has already undergone a period of serious decline but is now in the process of recovery. Such populations will require different types of conservation actions, focussing on enhancing their chances of recovery.

Type: Article
Title: Patterns of mammalian population decline inform conservation action
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.12659
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.12659
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Applied Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society. All rights reserved. This is the peer reviewed version of the following Di Fonzo, MMI; Collen, B; Chauvenet, ALM; Mace, GM; (2016) Patterns of mammalian population decline inform conservation action. Journal of Applied Ecology , 53 (4) pp. 1046-1054 which has been published in final form at 10.1111/1365-2664.12659. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving, http://olabout.wiley.com/WileyCDA/Section/id-820227.html#terms
Keywords: Science & Technology, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Biodiversity Conservation, Ecology, Biodiversity & Conservation, Environmental Sciences & Ecology, early-warning signal, extinction risk, indicator, mammals, management, monitoring, population decline, time-series analysis, trigger point
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > Div of Biosciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > Div of Biosciences > Genetics, Evolution and Environment
URI: http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1474366
Downloads since deposit
68Downloads
Download activity - last month
Download activity - last 12 months
Downloads by country - last 12 months

Archive Staff Only

View Item View Item