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Inferring Past Trends in Lake Water Organic Carbon Concentrations in Northern Lakes Using Sediment Spectroscopy

Meyer-Jacob, C; Michelutti, N; Paterson, AM; Monteith, D; Yang, H; Weckström, J; Smol, JP; (2017) Inferring Past Trends in Lake Water Organic Carbon Concentrations in Northern Lakes Using Sediment Spectroscopy. Environmental Science & Technology , 51 (22) pp. 13248-13255. 10.1021/acs.est.7b03147. Green open access

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Abstract

Changing lake water total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations are of concern for lake management because of corresponding effects on aquatic ecosystem functioning, drinking water resources and carbon cycling between land and sea. Understanding the importance of human activities on TOC changes requires knowledge of past concentrations; however, water-monitoring data are typically only available for the past few decades, if at all. Here, we present a universal model to infer past lake water TOC concentrations in northern lakes across Europe and North America that uses visible-near-infrared (VNIR) spectroscopy on lake sediments. In the orthogonal partial least-squares model, VNIR spectra of surface-sediment samples are calibrated against corresponding surface water TOC concentrations (0.5–41 mg L–1) from 345 Arctic to northern temperate lakes in Canada, Greenland, Sweden and Finland. Internal model-cross-validation resulted in a R2 of 0.57 and a prediction error of 4.4 mg TOC L–1. First applications to lakes in southern Ontario and Scotland, which are outside of the model’s geographic range, show the model accurately captures monitoring trends, and suggests that TOC dynamics during the 20th century at these sites were primarily driven by changes in atmospheric deposition. Our results demonstrate that the lake water TOC model has multiregional applications and is not biased by postdepositional diagenesis, allowing the identification of past TOC variations in northern lakes of Europe and North America over time scales of decades to millennia.

Type: Article
Title: Inferring Past Trends in Lake Water Organic Carbon Concentrations in Northern Lakes Using Sediment Spectroscopy
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.7b03147
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.7b03147
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of SandHS > Dept of Geography
URI: http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10037564
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