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Seasonal predictability of the winter NAO from north Atlantic sea surface temperatures

Saunders, MA; Qian, BD; (2002) Seasonal predictability of the winter NAO from north Atlantic sea surface temperatures. GEOPHYS RES LETT , 29 (22) , Article 2049. 10.1029/2002GL014952. Green open access

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Abstract

[1] We examine the seasonal predictability of the winter (December-January-February) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) from lagged north Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the period 1950/1-2000/1. We identify two lagged modes of SST variability whose principal components (PCs) are correlated significantly to upcoming winter NAO indices. We use linear regression with the PCs as predictors to assess the predictability of the winter NAO from cross-validation over the full period and from replicated real-time forecasts over the recent 15 year period 1986/7-2000/1. The model anticipates, in early November, the upcoming winter NAO - for a range of NAO indices - with a correlation between 0.47 and 0.63 for 1950/ 1-2000/1, and between 0.51 and 0.65 for the replicated real-time forecast period. The model also anticipates the correct NAO sign in 67% to 75% of the last 51 winters and in 80% to 93% of the last 15 winters.

Type: Article
Title: Seasonal predictability of the winter NAO from north Atlantic sea surface temperatures
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1029/2002GL014952
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2002GL014952
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright 2002 by the American Geophysical Union
Keywords: Atmospheric circulation, Climate variability, Oscillation, SST, Reanalysis, Mechanisms, Impacts, Europe
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Space and Climate Physics
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/87469
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