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Parsimonious Model for Predicting Mean Cabinet Duration On the Basis of Electoral System

Taagepera, R; Sikk, A; (2010) Parsimonious Model for Predicting Mean Cabinet Duration On the Basis of Electoral System. Party Politics: international journal for the study of political parties and political organizations , 16 (2) 261 - 281. 10.1177/1354068809341058. Green open access

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Abstract

This study joins two existing logical models and tests the resulting predictions of mean cabinet duration (C). One of these models predicts C based on effective number of parties (N): C = k/N², where k is found to be around 42 years. The other predicts N on the basis of number of seats in the assembly (S) and district magnitude (M). The new combined model leads to a prediction for the mean cabinet duration in terms of these two institutional factors: C = 42 years/(MS)^1/3. Three-quarters of the actual mean durations agree with the prediction within a factor of 2. For the purposes of institutional engineering, the model predicts that doubling the district magnitude would reduce the mean cabinet duration by 21 percent ceteris paribus.

Type: Article
Title: Parsimonious Model for Predicting Mean Cabinet Duration On the Basis of Electoral System
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1177/1354068809341058
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1354068809341058
Language: English
Additional information: Once the article has been accepted for publication, you may post the accepted version (version 2) of the article on your own personal website, your department’s website or the repository of your institution without any restrictions.
Keywords: Causal model, Electoral systems, Party government, Party systems
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > SSEES
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/72381
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