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The development impact of genetic use restriction technologies: a forecast based on the hybrid crop experience

Goeschl, T.; Swanson, T.; (2003) The development impact of genetic use restriction technologies: a forecast based on the hybrid crop experience. Environment and Development Economics , 8 (1) pp. 149-165. 10.1017/S1355770X03000081. Green open access

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Abstract

Advances in biotechnology have made available gene-manipulation techniques that enable the protection of genetic material from unauthorized use and the prevention of self-supply of commercial seeds by farmers—in order to allow enhanced appropriation of the values of innovation in agricultural R&D. These techniques have become known as Genetic Use Restriction Technologies (GURTs). This paper forecasts the potential impact of wide-spread adoption of GURTs by the providers of HYV seeds on the yield development in developing countries. To do so, it assesses (1) the effects of enhanced appropriation through GURTs on the technological expansion at the yield frontier and (2) the effects of technological protection of value-adding traits through GURTS on the diffusion of yield gains from the frontier to developing countries. These assessments are based on a particular hypothesis, which is that GURTs will replicate across most staple crops the experiences that were made with a previous use restriction technology (hybridization) in only a few crops. The estimation of impacts is carried out as a simulation and is based on expansion and diffusion parameters estimated for hybrid seeds over a 38-year period. It shows that the impact of GURTs on developing countries' yields will vary considerably. Specifically, those countries that currently have the lowest yields would be most adversely affected in their future yield development by the wide-spread use of GURTs.

Type: Article
Title: The development impact of genetic use restriction technologies: a forecast based on the hybrid crop experience
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1017/S1355770X03000081
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1355770X03000081
Language: English
Additional information: © 2003 Cambridge University Press
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS > Dept of Economics
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/17329
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