Momodu, AS;
Addo, A;
Akinbami, J-FK;
Mulugetta, Y;
(2017)
Low-carbon development strategy for the West African electricity system: preliminary assessment using System dynamics approach.
Energy, Sustainability and Society
, 7
, Article 11. 10.1186/s13705-017-0113-4.
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Abstract
BACKGROUND: Policy makers seek to understand the trade-offs needed between economic growth and climate change. This provides the context to explore low-carbon development (LCD) pathways for the West African electricity system. METHODS: The study relied on both primary and secondary sources to elicit required information. These data were elicited from relevant authorities in the West African electricity system, namely, West African Power Pool and ECOWAS Regional Electricity Regulatory Authority. The objectives were to evaluate the planning processes in the West African Power Pool electricity system vis-a-vis low-carbon development strategy (LCDS), develop a System dynamics (SD) model, and assess the relevance of the developed model to examine the nonlinear relationship between generation adequacy and greenhouse gas emission (GHG) reduction. The SD model examined the tension between providing adequate supply capacity against reducing emission from the generation technologies in the West Africa electricity system. This model arranged the complexities in the system and established the basic interconnecting structure to conduct the analysis. High leverage points were identified. RESULTS: Four high leverage points were identified: capacity factor (CF), emission factor (EF), time to adjust capacity, and expectation formation. CF and EF improvement increased efficiency in the system. The expectation formation periods were determined at 7.5 years for the base case scenario and 7 years for the low-carbon development option scenario. Time to adjust capacity was located at 21 and 20 years respectively; deduced from the average time, it will take to construct a combined cycle gas power plant (3 years) and an allowance of 2 years for delays and its decommissioning time. Between 2011 and 2012, in LCD option scenario, emission of GHG to the atmosphere dropped as generation did but began a steady rise for the simulation period to a value of 6.154 billion tCO2 in 2060. CONCLUSIONS: Electricity Planning-Low-Carbon Development (EP-LCD) model—with three modules, was developed for assessing WAPP in low carbon economy. High leverage points identified in the model simulation situate three policy options for overcoming poverty and mitigation targets as regards resource mix, investment cost recovery, and technical factors to reduce system’s environmental footprint.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Low-carbon development strategy for the West African electricity system: preliminary assessment using System dynamics approach |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1186/s13705-017-0113-4 |
| Publisher version: | http://doi.org/10.1186/s13705-017-0113-4 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © The Author(s). 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. |
| Keywords: | Low carbon development; Electricity system; WAPP; Feedback loop; Leverage points |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > STEaPP |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1575761 |
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