Kerr, K; (2007) Is increasing land supply the solution to the affordable housing crisis? The case of Nottingham and Portsmouth. Doctoral thesis , UCL (University College London).

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Abstract

Since the 1990's UK house prices have risen sharply, meaning houses have become less and less affordable for increasingly large numbers of people. This research investigates the effect which land availability has on house prices in Nottingham and Portsmouth. It considers how planning policy influences land supply and whether land supply in the sense of land shortages increases the price of housing. The consequences of rising house prices on the two cities are also considered. Existing research has investigated the effect which planning regulation has on land availability and the housing market, but there remains no consensus about the true magnitude of the effects of land supply on house price. Following the Barker Review, the Government have recently committed to a large scale house building programme, in which releasing large areas of land for developed is a critical action aimed at reducing house prices. Meanwhile the RTPI have disputed the idea that the current affordability crisis stems from the restricted supply of land and called for wider research into its causes. This study is based on data collected from January 2007 to August 2007, including statistical data on house prices and land availability, a house builder's survey and in- depth interviews. It identifies that rapidly increasing house prices have created severe problems in both areas, but particularly in Portsmouth where the lack of affordable housing is resulting in long housing waiting lists and recruitment problems in key services. The study concludes that an increase in supply of land for housing has been one of the significant factors in stabilising house prices in Nottingham. In Portsmouth the relationship is found to be less direct despite an overall increase in land supply, housing output has been variable and house prices have continued to increase rapidly. Housing cost is found to be a complex issue which is affected by a combination of factors, including housebuilder behaviour and the type property and tenure. In contrast to the Barker Review, this study suggests that land supply alone is not the answer to the housing crisis.

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