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Fragility Curves for Assessing the Resilience of Electricity Networks Constructed from an Extensive Fault Database

Dunn, S; Wilkinson, S; Alderson, D; Fowler, H; Galasso, C; (2018) Fragility Curves for Assessing the Resilience of Electricity Networks Constructed from an Extensive Fault Database. Natural Hazards Review , 19 (1) , Article 04017019. 10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000267. Green open access

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Abstract

Robust infrastructure networks are vital to ensure community resilience; their failure leads to severe societal disruption and they have important postdisaster functions. However, as these networks consist of interconnected, but geographically-distributed, components, system resilience is difficult to assess. In this paper the authors propose the use of an extension to the catastrophe (CAT) risk modeling approach, which is primarily used to perform risk assessments of independent assets, to be adopted for these interdependent systems. To help to achieve this, fragility curves, a crucial element of CAT models, are developed for overhead electrical lines using an empirical approach to ascribe likely failures due to wind storm hazard. To generate empirical fragility curves for electrical overhead lines, a dataset of over 12,000 electrical failures is coupled to a European reanalysis (ERA) wind storm model, ERA-Interim. The authors consider how the spatial resolution of the electrical fault data affects these curves, generating a fragility curve with low resolution fault data with a R2R2 value of 0.9271 and improving this to a R2R2 value of 0.9889 using higher spatial resolution data. Recommendations for deriving similar fragility curves for other infrastructure systems and/or hazards using the same methodological approach are also made. The authors argue that the developed fragility curves are applicable to other regions with similar electrical infrastructure and wind speeds, although some additional calibration may be required.

Type: Article
Title: Fragility Curves for Assessing the Resilience of Electricity Networks Constructed from an Extensive Fault Database
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000267
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000267
Language: English
Additional information: This work is made available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Keywords: Fragility curves; Resilience; Infrastructure systems; Catastrophe risk modeling; Weather hazard; Electrical networks; Engineering
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Civil, Environ and Geomatic Eng
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1560707
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