Wilkie, D; Galasso, C; (2017) Ultimate Limit State Fragility of Offshore Wind Turbines on Monopile Foundations. In: (Proceedings) 12th International Conference on Structural Safety & Reliability (ICOSSAR12). ICOSSAR

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Abstract

Assessing the risk posed by extreme natural events to the failure of offshore wind turbines (OWTs) is a challenging task. Highly stochastic environmental conditions represent the main source of variable loading; consequently, a high level of uncertainty is associated with assessing the structural demand on OWT structures. However, failure of any of the primary structural components implies both complete loss of the OWT and loss of earnings associated with production stoppage (i.e., business interruption). In this paper, we propose the use of the Catastrophe (CAT) Risk Modelling approach to assess the structural risk posed by extreme weather conditions to OWTs. To help achieving this, we develop fragility curves – a crucial element of any CAT models – for OWTs on monopile foundations. Fragility functions express the likelihood of different levels of damage (or damage states) sustained by a given asset over a range of hazard intensities. We compare the effect of modelling and analysis decisions on the fragility curves, highlighting how different procedures could affect the estimated probability of failure. We apply the proposed framework to two case-study locations, one in the Baltic Sea and one in the North Sea.

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