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Coulomb stress transfer and fault interaction over millennia on non-planar active normal faults: the Mw 6.5-5.0 seismic sequence of 2016–2017, central Italy

Mildon, ZK; Roberts, GP; Faure Walker, JP; Iezzi, F; (2017) Coulomb stress transfer and fault interaction over millennia on non-planar active normal faults: the Mw 6.5-5.0 seismic sequence of 2016–2017, central Italy. Geophysical Journal International , 210 (2) pp. 1206-1218. 10.1093/gji/ggx213. Green open access

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Abstract

In order to investigate the importance of including strike-variable geometry and the knowledge of historical and palaeoseismic earthquakes when modelling static Coulomb stress transfer and rupture propagation, we have examined the August–October 2016 A.D. and January 2017 A.D. central Apennines seismic sequence (Mw 6.0, 5.9, 6.5 in 2016 A.D. (INGV) and Mw 5.1, 5.5, 5.4, 5.0 in 2017 A.D. (INGV)). We model both the coseismic loading (from historical and palaeoseismic earthquakes) and interseismic loading (derived from Holocene fault slip-rates) using strike-variable fault geometries constrained by fieldwork. The inclusion of the elapsed times from available historical and palaeoseismological earthquakes and on faults enables us to calculate the stress on the faults prior to the beginning of the seismic sequence. We take account the 1316–4155 yr elapsed time on the Mt. Vettore fault (that ruptured during the 2016 A.D. seismic sequence) implied by palaeoseismology, and the 377 and 313 yr elapsed times on the neighbouring Laga and Norcia faults respectively, indicated by the historical record. The stress changes through time are summed to show the state of stress on the Mt. Vettore, Laga and surrounding faults prior to and during the 2016–2017 A.D. sequence. We show that the build up of stress prior to 2016 A.D. on strike-variable fault geometries generated stress heterogeneities that correlate with the limits of the main-shock ruptures. Hence, we suggest that stress barriers appear to have control on the propagation and therefore the magnitudes of the main-shock ruptures.

Type: Article
Title: Coulomb stress transfer and fault interaction over millennia on non-planar active normal faults: the Mw 6.5-5.0 seismic sequence of 2016–2017, central Italy
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggx213
Publisher version: http://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggx213
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Royal Astronomical Society. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Keywords: Europe; Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction; Palaeoseismology, Continental tectonics: extensional; Dynamics and mechanics of faulting, Mechanics, theory, and modelling
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Earth Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Inst for Risk and Disaster Reduction
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1560084
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