Sanchez Romero, LM; (2017) Impact of future obesity trends in the Mexican population: Development of a computer simulation model. Doctoral thesis , UCL (University College London).

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Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Mexico is one of the top 10 countries with the highest prevalence of obesity worldwide. In 2012, 22 million Mexican adults were classified as obese. As a consequence, the country has seen an increase in morbidity and mortality from obesity-associated diseases that have impacted the country’s health and economy. OBJECTIVE: To develop a computer simulation model that estimates future obesity prevalence and its impact on four cardiometabolic risk factors in the Mexican adult population aged 20-79y from 2015 to 2030. METHODS: Using the best and most recent available Mexican data, I developed the Mexican Obesity Forecast Model (MexOb-Model), a population-based computer simulation model that is composed of two sub-models: 1) a linear trend model that projects future prevalence of obesity; and a 2) discrete-state Markov model that estimates the impacts of rising levels of obesity on morbidity and mortality from hypertension, type 2 diabetes, hypertriglyceridaemia and hypercholesterolaemia in the adult population. Additionally, I estimated the potential health benefits of three hypothetical obesity prevalence reduction scenarios. RESULTS: If current trends continue, by 2030 there would be 48million obese adults (20─79y) in Mexico. The prevalence of hypertension, hypertriglyceridaemia and hypercholesterolaemia in the obese population would reach >50%, and 30% for diabetes. Decreasing the projected 2030 obesity prevalence by 3% would reduce the number of disease cases in the obese population by 150,000-500,000 and would reduce the number of deaths by 16,000-30,000. If Mexico achieved a bigger reduction in obesity levels, a 10% reduction in 2015 obesity prevalence by 2030, the number of disease cases avoided could be between 2 million and 7 million and total deaths reduce by nearly 500,000. CONCLUSION: The country’s prevalence of obesity, and obesity-related cardiometabolic risk factors, are expected to increase. A reduction of as little as 3% in the projected prevalence of obesity could result in a significant reduction in the health burden of obesity in Mexico.

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