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Myopic decision making in energy system decarbonisation pathways. A UK case study

Fuso Nerini, F; Keppo, I; Strachan, N; (2017) Myopic decision making in energy system decarbonisation pathways. A UK case study. Energy Strategy Reviews , 17 pp. 19-26. 10.1016/j.esr.2017.06.001. Green open access

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Abstract

With an application on the UK, this paper shows that myopic planning might result in delayed strategic investments and in considerably higher costs for achieving decarbonisation targets compared to estimates done with perfect foresight optimisation energy models. It also suggests that carbon prices obtained from perfect foresight energy models might be under-estimated. The study was performed using a combination of the standard UK Times Model (UKTM), a perfect foresight, bottom-up, technology-rich cost optimisation energy model, and its myopic foresight version: My-UKTM. This also demonstrates that using perfect foresight optimisation models in tandem with their myopic equivalents can provide valuable indications for policy design.

Type: Article
Title: Myopic decision making in energy system decarbonisation pathways. A UK case study
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2017.06.001
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2017.06.001
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: Energy systems decarbonisation, Optimisation energy models, Perfect foresight, Myopic models, TIMES model, Technology diffusion, United Kingdom
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1559614
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