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Predictors of atrial fibrillation in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy

Guttmann, OP; Pavlou, M; O'Mahony, C; Monserrat, L; Anastasakis, A; Rapezzi, C; Biagini, E; ... Elliott, PM; + view all (2017) Predictors of atrial fibrillation in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. Heart , 103 (9) pp. 672-678. 10.1136/heartjnl-2016-309672. Green open access

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Abstract

Objectives Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). The primary aim of this study (HCM Risk-AF) was to determine the predictors of AF in a large multicentre cohort of patients with HCM. Exploratory analyses were performed to investigate the association between AF and survival and the efficacy of antiarrhythmic therapy in maintaining sinus rhythm (SR). Methods A retrospective, longitudinal cohort of patients recruited between 1986 and 2008 in seven centres was used to develop multivariable Cox regression models fitted with preselected predictors. HCM was defined as unexplained hypertrophy (maximum left ventricular wall thickness of ≥15 mm or in accordance with published criteria for the diagnosis of familial disease). 28% of patients (n=1171) had coexistent hypertension. The primary end point was paroxysmal, permanent or persistent AF detected on ECG, Holter monitoring or implantable device interrogation. Results Of the 4248 patients with HCM without preexisting AF, 740 (17.4%) reached the primary end point. Multivariable Cox regression revealed an association between AF and female sex, age, left atrial diameter, New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, hypertension and vascular disease. The proportion of patients with cardiovascular death at 10 years was 4.9% in the SR group and 10.9% in the AF group (difference in proportions=5.9%; 95% CI (4.1% to 7.8%)). The proportion of patients with non-cardiovascular death at 10 years was 3.2% in the SR group and 5.9% in the AF group (difference in proportions=2.8%; 95% CI (0.1% to 4.2%)). An intention-to-treat propensity score analysis demonstrated that β-blockers, calcium channel antagonists and disopyramide initially maintained SR during follow-up, but their protective effect diminished with time. Amiodarone therapy did not prevent AF during follow-up. Conclusion This study shows that patients with HCM who are at risk of AF development can be identified using readily available clinical parameters. The development of AF is associated with a poor prognosis but there was no evidence that antiarrhythmic therapy prevents AF in the long term.

Type: Article
Title: Predictors of atrial fibrillation in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1136/heartjnl-2016-309672
Publisher version: http://doi.org/10.1136/heartjnl-2016-309672
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: Science & Technology, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Cardiac & Cardiovascular Systems, Cardiovascular System & Cardiology, MYOCARDIAL FIBROSIS, EUROPEAN-SOCIETY, CLINICAL-COURSE, EVENTS, RISK, ARRHYTHMIAS, GUIDELINES, MANAGEMENT, IMPACT, DEATH
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Cardiovascular Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Cardiovascular Science > Clinical Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Statistical Science
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1557069
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