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A spatial model for conflict incorporating within- and between-actor effects

Knipl, D; Davies, TP; Baudains, P; (2017) A spatial model for conflict incorporating within- and between-actor effects. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications , 483 pp. 517-533. 10.1016/j.physa.2017.04.017. Green open access

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Abstract

The application of ecological models to human conflict scenarios has given rise to a number of models which describe antagonistic relationships between adversaries. Recent work demonstrates that the spatial disaggregation of such models is not only well-motivated but also gives rise to interesting dynamic behaviour, particularly with respect to the spatial distribution of resources. One feature which is largely absent from previous models, however, is the ability of an adversary to coordinate activity across its various locations. Most immediately, this corresponds to the notion of `support' - the reallocation of resources from one site to another according to need - which plays an important role in real-world conflict. In this paper, we generalise a spatially-disaggregated form of the classic Richardson model of conflict escalation by adding a cross-location interaction term for the within-adversary dynamics at each location. We explore the model analytically, giving conditions for the stability of the balanced equilibrium state. We then also carry out a number of numerical simulations which correspond to stylised real-world conflict scenarios. Potential further applications of the model, and its implications for policy, are then discussed.

Type: Article
Title: A spatial model for conflict incorporating within- and between-actor effects
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2017.04.017
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2017.04.017
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: Conflict, reaction-diffusion, within-adversary action, stability analysis
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Security and Crime Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1553223
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