Anciaes, PR; (2016) Population decline and accessibility in the Portuguese countryside. In: Geurs, KT and Patuelli, R and Dentinho, T, (eds.) Accessibility, Equity and Efficiency: Challenges for Transport and Public Services. (pp. 33-54). Edward Elgar: Cheltenham, UK.

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Abstract

This paper tests the influence of road investment and railway disinvestment on the population decline in the Portuguese interior regions in the last 20 years. The study adds to existing literature by comparing different dimensions of road and rail accessibility and different frequencies, departure and arrival times and time thresholds for each trip purpose. The analysis shows that in the 1991-2001 period, population decline is linked with improvements in accessibility as measured by indicators such as the times to nearest motorway junction and rail station, the existence of a rail station in the vicinity, and the car accessibility of weekly commutes. This pattern is not visible in the period 2001-2011, when the few significant accessibility indicators, such as time to rail stations and the car accessibility of daily commutes, are positively linked to population change. These results suggest that accessibility can act either as a push or pull factor in the countryside areas, and that different indicators capture different components of these multiple effects.

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