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A statistical model to describe longitudinal and correlated metabolic risk factors: the Whitehall II prospective study

Breeze, P; Squires, H; Chilcott, J; Stride, C; Diggle, PJ; Brunner, E; Tabak, A; (2016) A statistical model to describe longitudinal and correlated metabolic risk factors: the Whitehall II prospective study. Journal of Public Health , 38 (4) pp. 679-687. 10.1093/pubmed/fdv160. Green open access

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Novel epidemiology models are required to link correlated variables over time, especially haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and body mass index (BMI) for diabetes prevention policy analysis. This article develops an epidemiology model to correlate metabolic risk factor trajectories. METHOD: BMI, fasting plasma glucose, 2-h glucose, HbA1c, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol were analysed over 16 years from 8150 participants of the Whitehall II prospective cohort study. Latent growth curve modelling was employed to simultaneously estimate trajectories for multiple metabolic risk factors allowing for variation between individuals. A simulation model compared simulated outcomes with the observed data. RESULTS: The model identified that the change in BMI was associated with changes in glycaemia, total cholesterol and systolic blood pressure. The statistical analysis quantified associations among the longitudinal risk factor trajectories. Growth in latent glycaemia was positively correlated with systolic blood pressure and negatively correlated with HDL cholesterol. The goodness-of-fit analysis indicates reasonable fit to the data. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first statistical model that estimates trajectories of metabolic risk factors simultaneously for diabetes to predict joint correlated risk factor trajectories. This can inform comparisons of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of preventive interventions, which aim to modify metabolic risk factors.

Type: Article
Title: A statistical model to describe longitudinal and correlated metabolic risk factors: the Whitehall II prospective study
Location: England
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1093/pubmed/fdv160
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdv160
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Keywords: diabetes, epidemiology
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health > Epidemiology and Public Health
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1542417
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