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Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Marangoni, G; Tavoni, M; Bosetti, V; Borgonovo, E; Capros, P; Fricko, O; Gernaat, DEHJ; ... van Vuuren, DP; + view all (2017) Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Nature Climate Change , 7 pp. 113-117. 10.1038/nclimate3199. Green open access

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Abstract

Scenarios showing future greenhouse gas emissions are needed to estimate climate impacts and the mitigation efforts required for climate stabilization. Recently, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been introduced to describe alternative social, economic and technical narratives, spanning a wide range of plausible futures in terms of challenges to mitigation and adaptation1. Thus far the key drivers of the uncertainty in emissions projections have not been robustly disentangled. Here we assess the sensitivities of future CO2 emissions to key drivers characterizing the SSPs. We use six state-of-the-art integrated assessment models with different structural characteristics, and study the impact of five families of parameters, related to population, income, energy efficiency, fossil fuel availability, and low-carbon energy technology development. A recently developed sensitivity analysis algorithm2 allows us to parsimoniously compute both the direct and interaction effects of each of these drivers on cumulative emissions. The study reveals that the SSP assumptions about energy intensity and economic growth are the most important determinants of future CO2 emissions from energy combustion, both with and without a climate policy. Interaction terms between parameters are shown to be important determinants of the total sensitivities.

Type: Article
Title: Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3199
Publisher version: http://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3199
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright © 2017 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Climate-change mitigation, Socioeconomic scenarios
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1539356
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