Notz, D;
Stroeve, J;
(2016)
Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission.
Science
, 354
(6313)
pp. 747-750.
10.1126/science.aag2345.
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Abstract
Arctic sea ice is retreating rapidly, raising prospects of a future ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer. Because climate-model simulations of the sea-ice loss differ substantially, we used a robust linear relationship between monthly-mean September sea-ice area and cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to infer the future evolution of Arctic summer sea ice directly from the observational record. The observed linear relationship implies a sustained loss of 3 ± 0.3 square meters of September sea-ice area per metric ton of CO2 emission. On the basis of this sensitivity, Arctic sea ice will be lost throughout September for an additional 1000 gigatons of CO2 emissions. Most models show a lower sensitivity, which is possibly linked to an underestimation of the modeled increase in incoming longwave radiation and of the modeled transient climate response.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1126/science.aag2345 |
| Publisher version: | http://doi.org/10.1126/science.aag2345 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Copyright 2016 by the American Association for the Advancement of Science; all rights reserved. The title Science is a registered trademark of AAAS. |
| Keywords: | Science & Technology, Multidisciplinary Sciences, Science & Technology - Other Topics, CUMULATIVE CARBON EMISSIONS, CLIMATE SENSITIVITY, ENERGY-BALANCE, MODELS, TEMPERATURE, FUTURE, BUDGET, CMIP5 |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Earth Sciences |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1536935 |
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