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Predicting Hospitalised Paediatric Pneumonia Mortality Risk: An External Validation of RISC and mRISC, and Local Tool Development (RISC-Malawi) from Malawi

Hooli, S; Colbourn, T; Lufesi, N; Costello, A; Nambiar, B; Thammasitboon, S; Makwenda, C; ... King, C; + view all (2016) Predicting Hospitalised Paediatric Pneumonia Mortality Risk: An External Validation of RISC and mRISC, and Local Tool Development (RISC-Malawi) from Malawi. PLOS ONE , 11 (12) 10.1371/journal.pone.0168126. Green open access

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Abstract

Background: Pneumonia is the leading infectious cause of under-5 mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Clinical prediction tools may aide case classification, triage, and allocation of hospital resources. We performed an external validation of two published prediction tools and compared this to a locally developed tool to identify children admitted with pneumonia at increased risk for in-hospital mortality in Malawi. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the performance of the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children (RISC) and modified RISC (mRISC) scores in a child pneumonia dataset prospectively collected during routine care at seven hospitals in Malawi between 2011–2014. RISC has both an HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected tool. A local score (RISC-Malawi) was developed using multivariable logistic regression with missing data multiply imputed using chained equations. Score performances were assessed using c-statistics, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and likelihood statistics. Results: 16,475 in-patient pneumonia episodes were recorded (case-fatality rate (CFR): 3.2%), 9,533 with complete data (CFR: 2.0%). The c-statistic for the RISC (HIV-uninfected) score, used to assess its ability to differentiate between children who survived to discharge and those that died, was 0.72. The RISC-Malawi score, using mid-upper arm circumference as an indicator of malnutrition severity, had a c-statistic of 0.79. We were unable to perform a comprehensive external validation of RISC (HIV-infected) and mRISC as both scores include parameters that were not routinely documented variables in our dataset. Conclusion: In our population of Malawian children with WHO-defined pneumonia, the RISC (HIV-uninfected) score identified those at high risk for in-hospital mortality. However the refinement of parameters and resultant creation of RISC-Malawi improved performance. Next steps include prospectively studying both scores to determine if incorporation into routine care delivery can have a meaningful impact on in-hospital CFRs of children with WHO-defined pneumonia.

Type: Article
Title: Predicting Hospitalised Paediatric Pneumonia Mortality Risk: An External Validation of RISC and mRISC, and Local Tool Development (RISC-Malawi) from Malawi
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0168126
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0168126
Language: English
Additional information: © 2016 Hooli et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Keywords: Science & Technology, Multidisciplinary Sciences, Science & Technology - Other Topics, CHILDREN, QUALITY, COMMUNITY, CRITERIA, DISEASES, CARE
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Pop Health Sciences > Institute for Global Health
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1534875
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