UCL Discovery
UCL home » Library Services » Electronic resources » UCL Discovery

Change-point of multiple biomarkers in women with ovarian cancer

Mariño, IP; Blyuss, O; Ryan, A; Gentry-Maharaj, A; Timms, JF; Dawnay, A; Kalsi, J; ... Zaikin, A; + view all (2017) Change-point of multiple biomarkers in women with ovarian cancer. Biomedical Signal Processing and Control , 33 pp. 169-177. 10.1016/j.bspc.2016.11.015. Green open access

[thumbnail of manuscript.pdf]
Preview
Text
manuscript.pdf - Accepted Version

Download (318kB) | Preview

Abstract

To date several algorithms for longitudinal analysis of ovarian cancer biomarkers have been proposed in the literature. An issue of specific interest is to determine whether the baseline level of a biomarker changes significantly at some time instant (change-point) prior to the clinical diagnosis of cancer. Such change-points in the serum biomarker Cancer Antigen 125 (CA125) time series data have been used in ovarian cancer screening, resulting in earlier detection with a sensitivity of 85% in the most recent trial, the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS, number ISRCTN22488978; NCT00058032). Here we propose to apply a hierarchical Bayesian change-point model to jointly study the features of time series from multiple biomarkers. For this model we have analytically derived the conditional probability distribution of every unknown parameter, thus enabling the design of efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for their estimation. We have applied these methods to the estimation of change-points in time series data of multiple biomarkers, including CA125 and others, using data from a nested case-control study of women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in UKCTOCS. In this way we assess whether any of these additional biomarkers can play a role in change-point detection and, therefore, aid in the diagnosis of the disease in patients for whom the CA125 time series does not display a change-point. We have also investigated whether the change-points for different biomarkers occur at similar times for the same patient. The main conclusion of our study is that the combined analysis of a group of specific biomarkers may possibly improve the detection of change-points in time series data (compared to the analysis of CA125 alone) which, in turn, are relevant for the early diagnosis of ovarian cancer.

Type: Article
Title: Change-point of multiple biomarkers in women with ovarian cancer
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.bspc.2016.11.015
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.bspc.2016.11.015
Language: English
Additional information: © 2016. This manuscript version is published under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Non-derivative 4.0 International licence (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). This licence allows you to share, copy, distribute and transmit the work for personal and non-commercial use providing author and publisher attribution is clearly stated. Further details about CC BY licences are available at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0. Access may be initially restricted by the publisher.
Keywords: Ovarian cancer; Gibbs sampling; Change-point detection; Bayesian estimation
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Inst of Clinical Trials and Methodology
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Inst of Clinical Trials and Methodology > MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health > Epidemiology and Public Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > UCL EGA Institute for Womens Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > UCL EGA Institute for Womens Health > Womens Cancer
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1534137
Downloads since deposit
173Downloads
Download activity - last month
Download activity - last 12 months
Downloads by country - last 12 months

Archive Staff Only

View Item View Item