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Adjusting for bias in unblinded randomized controlled trials

Schmidt, AF; Groenwold, RHH; (2018) Adjusting for bias in unblinded randomized controlled trials. Statistical Methods in Medical Research , 27 (8) pp. 2413-2427. 10.1177/0962280216680652. Green open access

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Abstract

It may not always be possible to blind participants of a randomized controlled trial for treatment allocation. As a result, estimators of the actual treatment effect may be biased. In this paper, we will extend a novel method, originally introduced in genetic research, for instrumental variable meta-analysis, adjusting for bias due to unblinding of trial participants. Using simulation studies, this novel method, “Egger Correction for non-Adherence”, is introduced and compared to the performance of the “intention-to-treat,” “as-treated,” and conventional “instrumental variable” estimators. Scenarios considered (time-varying) non-adherence, confounding, and between-study heterogeneity. The effect of treatment on a binary endpoint was quantified by means of a risk difference. In all scenarios with unblinded treatment allocation, the Egger Correction for non-Adherence method was the least biased estimator. However, unless the variation in adherence was relatively large, precision was lacking, and power did not surpass 0.50. As a comparison, in a meta-analysis of blinded randomized controlled trials, power of the conventional IV estimator was 1.00 versus at most 0.14 for the Egger Correction for non-Adherence estimator. Due to this lack of precision and power, we suggest to use this method mainly as a sensitivity analysis.

Type: Article
Title: Adjusting for bias in unblinded randomized controlled trials
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1177/0962280216680652
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0962280216680652
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: statistics, randomized controlled trials, Monte Carlo method, bias, treatment effectiveness, instrumental variable
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Cardiovascular Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Cardiovascular Science > Population Science and Experimental Medicine
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1531142
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