UCL Discovery
UCL home » Library Services » Electronic resources » UCL Discovery

Understanding the impact of interventions to prevent antimicrobial resistant infections in the long-term care facility; a review and practical guide to mathematical modelling

Rosello Gilchrist, A; Horner, C; Hopkins, S; Hayward, AC; Deeny, SR; (2016) Understanding the impact of interventions to prevent antimicrobial resistant infections in the long-term care facility; a review and practical guide to mathematical modelling. Infection Control & Hospital Epidemiology , 38 (2) pp. 216-225. 10.1017/ice.2016.286. Green open access

[img]
Preview
Text
Rosello Gilchrist_28-10-2016_REVIEW_DRAFT RPS upload.pdf

Download (357kB) | Preview

Abstract

(1) To systematically search for all dynamic mathematical models of infectious disease transmission in long-term care facilities (LTCFs); (2) to critically evaluate models of interventions against antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in this setting; and (3) to develop a checklist for hospital epidemiologists and policy makers by which to distinguish good quality models of AMR in LTCFs. The CINAHL, EMBASE, Global Health, MEDLINE, and Scopus databases were systematically searched for studies of dynamic mathematical models set in LTCFs. Models of interventions targeting methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in LTCFs were critically assessed. Using this analysis, we developed a checklist for good quality mathematical models of AMR in LTCFs. Overall, 18 papers described mathematical models that characterized the spread of infectious diseases in LTCFs, but no models of AMR in gram-negative bacteria in this setting were described. Future models of AMR in LTCFs require a more robust methodology (ie, formal model fitting to data and validation), greater transparency regarding model assumptions, setting-specific data, realistic and current setting-specific parameters, and inclusion of movement dynamics between LTCFs and hospitals. Mathematical models of AMR in gram-negative bacteria in the LTCF setting, where these bacteria are increasingly becoming prevalent, are needed to help guide infection prevention and control. Improvements are required to develop outputs of sufficient quality to help guide interventions and policy in the future. We suggest a checklist of criteria to be used as a practical guide to determine whether a model is robust enough to test policy.

Type: Article
Title: Understanding the impact of interventions to prevent antimicrobial resistant infections in the long-term care facility; a review and practical guide to mathematical modelling
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1017/ice.2016.286
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1017/ice.2016.286
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > Div of Infection and Immunity
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Population Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health > Epidemiology and Public Health
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1522651
Downloads since deposit
109Downloads
Download activity - last month
Download activity - last 12 months
Downloads by country - last 12 months

Archive Staff Only

View Item View Item