Aksoy, O;
(2016)
Regression Discontinuity diagnostics reveal statistical anomalies in Turkish elections.
Electoral Studies
, 44
pp. 284-292.
10.1016/j.electstud.2016.09.005.
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Abstract
Using Regression Discontinuity diagnostics we document a number of statistical anomalies in the 2004 Turkish mayoral elections. The governing party that controls the parliament is much more likely to win close races than lose. Moreover, compared to close governing party losses, there is a sharp drop in turnout and contending party votes in close governing party wins. Finally, the parties that disproportionately lose very close races are exclusively ideological competitors of the governing party. Among the potential mechanisms that may create those anomalies, electoral manipulation seems to a plausible explanation. Those anomalies show that the outcomes of very close popular elections can be non-random and that the assumption of the continuity of the expected potential outcomes at the threshold could be violated. We discuss implications of our findings for Regression Discontinuity Designs and for understanding the consolidation of the right-wing electorate in Turkey during the last decade.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Regression Discontinuity diagnostics reveal statistical anomalies in Turkish elections |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.electstud.2016.09.005 |
| Publisher version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2016.09.005 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Copyright © 2016. This manuscript version is published under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Non-derivative 4.0 International licence (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). This licence allows you to share, copy, distribute and transmit the work for personal and non-commercial use providing author and publisher attribution is clearly stated. Further details about CC BY licences are available at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0. |
| Keywords: | Regression Discontinuity Design; Close elections; Electoral Manipulation; Turkey |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Education UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Education > UCL Institute of Education UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Education > UCL Institute of Education > IOE - Social Research Institute |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1516044 |
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