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Prediction of the Containment of HIV Infection by Antiretroviral Therapy - a Variable Structure Control Approach

Anelone, A; Spurgeon, S; (2017) Prediction of the Containment of HIV Infection by Antiretroviral Therapy - a Variable Structure Control Approach. IET Systems Biology , 11 (1) pp. 44-53. 10.1049/iet-syb.2016.0028. Green open access

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Abstract

It is demonstrated that the reachability paradigm from variable structure control theory is a suitable framework to monitor and predict the progression of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection following initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). A manifold is selected which characterises the infection-free steady-state. A model of HIV infection together with an associated reachability analysis is used to formulate a dynamical condition for the containment of HIV infection on the manifold. This condition is tested using data from two different HIV clinical trials which contain measurements of the CD4+ T cell count and HIV load in the peripheral blood collected from HIV infected individuals for the six month period following initiation of ART. The biological rates of the model are estimated using the multi-point identification method and data points collected in the initial period of the trial. Using the parameter estimates and the numerical solutions of the model, the predictions of the reachability analysis are shown to be consistent with the clinical diagnosis at the conclusion of the trial. The methodology captures the dynamical characteristics of eventual successful, failed and marginal outcomes. The findings evidence that the reachability analysis is an appropriate tool to monitor and develop personalised antiretroviral treatment.

Type: Article
Title: Prediction of the Containment of HIV Infection by Antiretroviral Therapy - a Variable Structure Control Approach
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1049/iet-syb.2016.0028
Publisher version: http://doi.org/10.1049/iet-syb.2016.0028
Language: English
Additional information: © The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2016. This paper is a postprint of a paper submitted to and accepted for publication in IET Systems Biology and is subject to Institution of Engineering and Technology Copyright. The copy of record is available at IET Digital Library.
Keywords: Parameter estimation; patient treatment; microorganisms; drugs; antiretroviral therapy; HIV infection; reachability analysis; multipoint identification method; parameter estimation; human immunodeficiency virus; variable structure control theory; antiretroviral drugs; Patient care and treatment; Patient care and treatment
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Electronic and Electrical Eng
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1515793
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