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Using timing of ice retreat to predict timing of fall freeze-up in the Arctic

Stroeve, JC; Crawford, AD; Stammerjohn, S; (2016) Using timing of ice retreat to predict timing of fall freeze-up in the Arctic. Geophysical Research Letters , 43 (12) pp. 6332-6340. 10.1002/2016GL069314. Green open access

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Abstract

Reliable forecasts of the timing of sea ice advance are needed in order to reduce risks associatedwith operating in the Arctic as well as planning of human and environmental emergencies. This studyinvestigates the use of a simple statistical model relating the timing of ice retreat to the timing of ice advance,taking advantage of the inherent predictive power supplied by the seasonal ice-albedo feedback and oceanheat uptake. Results show that using the last retreat date to predict the first advance date is applicable insome regions, such as Baffin Bay and the Laptev and East Siberian seas, where a predictive skill is found evenafter accounting for the long-term trend in both variables. Elsewhere, in the Arctic, there is some predictive skillsdepending on the year (e.g., Kara and Beaufort seas), but none in regions such as the Barents and Bering seas orthe Sea of Okhotsk. While there is some suggestion that the relationship is strengthening over time, this mayreflect that higher correlations are expected during periods when the underlying trend is strong.

Type: Article
Title: Using timing of ice retreat to predict timing of fall freeze-up in the Arctic
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069314
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069314
Language: English
Additional information: © 2016. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.
Keywords: Science & Technology, Physical Sciences, Geosciences, Multidisciplinary, Geology, SEA-ICE, LAPTEV SEA, FORECAST, OUTLOOK, EXTENT, SKILL, Arctic sea ice; seasonal forecasting
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Earth Sciences
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1508321
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