Van Den Hout, ADL;
Alberink, I;
(2016)
Posterior distributions for likelihood ratios in forensic science.
Science & Justice
, 56
(5)
10.1016/j.scijus.2016.06.011.
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Abstract
Evaluation of evidence in forensic science is discussed using posterior distributions for likelihood ratios. Instead of eliminating the uncertainty by integrating (Bayes factor) or by conditioning on parameter values, uncertainty in the likelihood ratio is retained by parameter uncertainty derived from posterior distributions. A posterior distribution for a likelihood ratio can be summarised by the median and credible intervals. Using the posterior mean of the distribution is not recommended. An analysis of forensic data for body height estimation is undertaken. The posterior likelihood approach has been criticised both theoretically and with respect to applicability. This paper addresses the latter and illustrates an interesting application area.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Posterior distributions for likelihood ratios in forensic science |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.scijus.2016.06.011 |
| Publisher version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scijus.2016.06.011 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Copyright © 2016 The Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). The published version of record is available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scijus.2016.06.011 |
| Keywords: | Likelihood ratio, Bayes factor, Bayesian inference, Body height estimation, Posterior likelihood ratios, Precision, Reliability |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Statistical Science |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1503604 |
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