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Extreme UK rainfall and natural climate variability: combining models and data

Brierley, CM; Simpson, M; Roy, I; Nankervis, C; (2016) Extreme UK rainfall and natural climate variability: combining models and data. (ECRC Research Report 175 ). UCL Environmental Change Research Centre: London, UK. Green open access

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Abstract

The return periods for extreme events are estimated from observational datasets. Often those datasets are relatively short in comparison to timescales of natural climate variability; potentially introducing a systematic bias into the extreme estimates. Here we combine observations with global climate models to show that this bias is statistically insignificant for the case of extreme UK-wide rainfall estimates. This is unlikely to hold for other locations and spatial scales, yet the methodology we have developed provides a simple approach to quantify the bias for other cases.

Type: Report
Title: Extreme UK rainfall and natural climate variability: combining models and data
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
Publisher version: https://www.geog.ucl.ac.uk/research/research-centr...
Language: English
Keywords: Climate, Extreme Weather
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Inst for Risk and Disaster Reduction
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS > Dept of Geography
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1503519
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