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A system dynamics model of socio-technical regime transitions

Papachristos, G; (2011) A system dynamics model of socio-technical regime transitions. Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions , 1 (2) pp. 202-233. 10.1016/j.eist.2011.10.001. Green open access

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Abstract

Formal modelling of sociotechnical transitions has so far focused either on reproducing known historical case studies or on generic transition models that encompass some of the characteristics of the underlying processes. This article presents a model that captures the unfolding dynamics of an existing technological regime and the emerging niches as they compete and respond to landscape pressures. The theoretical basis is the “Multi-Level Perspective” (MLP) framework. The development of new technologies in niches is endogenous and stochastic. Model analysis can be seen as a test of the dynamic consistency of the MLP substitution pathway. Simulation results are consistent with what MLP theory suggests and raise relevant questions and insights for future modelling work on transition pathways and theory development.

Type: Article
Title: A system dynamics model of socio-technical regime transitions
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.eist.2011.10.001
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eist.2011.10.001
Language: English
Keywords: Formal modelling; System dynamics; Transition mechanisms; Transition pathways
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1502276
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