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Modelling population exposure to high indoor temperatures under changing climates, housing conditions, and urban environments in England

Taylor, JG; Symonds, P; Mavrogianni, A; Davies, M; Shrubsole, C; Hamilton, I; Chalabi, Z; (2016) Modelling population exposure to high indoor temperatures under changing climates, housing conditions, and urban environments in England. In: Proceedings of the 2016 International Conference on Urban Risks (ICUR 2016). Centro Europeu de Riscos Urbanos (CERU): Lisbon, Portugal. Green open access

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Abstract

: The exposure of an individual to heat during hot weather depends on several factors including local outdoor temperatures and possible Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects, the thermal performance of the building they inhabit, and any actions that they are able to take in order to modify the indoor thermal conditions. There is an increasing body of research that seeks to understand how housing, UHI, and occupant profiles may alter the risk of mortality during hot weather. Housing overheating models have been of particular interest due to the amount of time spent indoors and the need to improve the energy efficiency of the UK housing stock. A number of housing overheating models have been created in order to understand how changes to the building stock and climate may alter heat exposure and risks of heatrelated mortality. We briefly describe the development of a metamodel – a model derived from the outputs of EnergyPlus dynamic thermal simulation models of building variants – and its application to a housing stock model representative of the West Midlands, UK. We model the stock under a ‘current’ scenario, as described by the 2010-2011 English Housing Survey, and then following a full energy-efficient building fabric retrofit or the installation of external window shutters. Initial results indicate a wide range of overheating risks inside dwelling variants in Birmingham, with flats and bungalows most vulnerable to overheating, and detached dwellings least vulnerable. Modelling of the full retrofit of buildings indicated that the stock would experience an overall increase in overheating, while external shutters were able to decrease overheating significantly.

Type: Proceedings paper
Title: Modelling population exposure to high indoor temperatures under changing climates, housing conditions, and urban environments in England
Event: 2016 International Conference on Urban Risks (ICUR 2016)
Location: Lisbon, Portugal
Dates: 30 June 2016 - 02 July 2016
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
Publisher version: http://www.ceru-europa.pt/icur2016/index.htm
Language: English
Keywords: Overheating, England, Dwellings, Energy Efficiency
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1502249
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