Thompson, JR;
Crawley, A;
Kingston, DG;
(2016)
GCM-related uncertainty for river flows and inundation under climate change: the Inner Niger Delta.
Hydrological Sciences Journal
, 61
(13)
pp. 2325-2347.
10.1080/02626667.2015.1117173.
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Abstract
A semi-distributed hydrological model of the Niger River above and including the Inner Delta is developed. GCM-related uncertainty in climate change impacts are investigated using seven GCMs for a 2°C increase in global mean temperature, the hypothesised threshold of “dangerous” climate change. Declines in precipitation predominate, although some GCMs project increases for some sub-catchments, whilst PET increases for all scenarios. Inter-GCM uncertainty in projected precipitation is three to five times that of PET. With the exception of one GCM (HadGEM1), which projects a very small increase (3.9%), river inflows to the Delta decline. There is considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of these reductions, ranging from 0.8% (HadCM3) to 52.7% (IPSL). Whilst flood extent for HadGEM1 increases (mean annual peak +1405 km2/+10.2%), for other GCMs it declines. These declines range from almost negligible changes to a 7903 km2 (57.3%) reduction in the mean annual peak.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | GCM-related uncertainty for river flows and inundation under climate change: the Inner Niger Delta |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1080/02626667.2015.1117173 |
| Publisher version: | http:/d/x.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2015.1117173 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Copyright © 2015 The Author(s). Published by Taylor & Francis. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Permission is granted subject to the terms of the License under which the work was published. Please check the License conditions for the work which you wish to reuse. Full and appropriate attribution must be given. This permission does not cover any third party copyrighted material which may appear in the work requested. |
| Keywords: | Inner Niger Delta, climate change, uncertainty, hydrological modelling |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS > Dept of Geography |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1496947 |
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