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Spatiotemporal disaggregation of GB scenarios depicting increased wind capacity and electrified heat demand in dwellings

Sharp, RE; (2015) Spatiotemporal disaggregation of GB scenarios depicting increased wind capacity and electrified heat demand in dwellings. In: Proceedings of the 38th IAEE International Conference. International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE): Antalya, Turkey. Green open access

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Abstract

National Grid’s future energy scenarios present a range of futures where wind capacity and domestic heat pumps increasetovaryingdegrees. BothofthesechangeswillintroduceincreasedvariabilityintotheGBelectricitysystem. In order to understand the implications of this variability it is important to understand the impact that wind speeds and temperature will have on supply and demand. This study therefore presents a method that disaggregates and modelsthesescenariosatanhourlyresolutionina0.5ogridcoveringGBandoffshorewaters. Thegriddedmodelling approach facilitates the use of climate reanalysis data which provides spatiotemporally homogeneous and accurate hindcastedweatherdataoverthe25yearperiodofthescenarios. Methodsforredistributingnongriddedspatialdata and disaggregating non spatial data to the grid are discussed. Theresultsdemonstrate thathigh offshore capacityfactors haveasignificantimpactonthe projected generation ofdifferentwindcapacityscenarios. Analysisofextremeeventsundereachscenario,facilitatedbythedisaggregated approach, demonstrate that there will be periods of up to 50 hours where supply exceeds demand for the most ambitious wind scenarios and all but one scenario will require solutions to store or transfer excess wind generation. High demand events are shown to occur at similar levels in all scenarios.

Type: Proceedings paper
Title: Spatiotemporal disaggregation of GB scenarios depicting increased wind capacity and electrified heat demand in dwellings
Event: 38th IAEE International Conference
Location: Antalya, Turkey
Dates: 03 May 2015 - 12 May 2016
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
Publisher version: https://www.iaee.org/en/publications/proceedingsse...
Language: English
Additional information: This paper was first published by the International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE): www.iaee.org.
Keywords: Wind, Reanalysis, Electricity Demand, Disaggregation
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1492733
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