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Firewall? or Wall on Fire? A Unified Framework of Conflict Contagion and the Role of Ethnic Exclusion

Metternich, NW; Minhas, S; Ward, MD; (2017) Firewall? or Wall on Fire? A Unified Framework of Conflict Contagion and the Role of Ethnic Exclusion. Journal of Conflict Resolution , 61 (6) pp. 1151-1173. 10.1177/0022002715603452. Green open access

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Abstract

While some borders are real firewalls against conflicts, others appear like tinder just waiting for the smallest spark. Only recently has research focused on the transnational perspective of conflict and current research has focused mostly on isolated aspects of this phenomenon. In this article, we provide a unified framework for conflict contagion that takes into account receiver, sender, dyad, and network effects. This is a novel perspective on conflict contagion, and our empirical results suggest that distinguishing between sender and receiver effects allows for a better understanding of spillover effects. We provide insights that especially excluded ethnic groups impact the risk of countries sending and receiving conflicts from its neighbors.

Type: Article
Title: Firewall? or Wall on Fire? A Unified Framework of Conflict Contagion and the Role of Ethnic Exclusion
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1177/0022002715603452
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022002715603452
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright © The Author(s) 2015.
Keywords: conflict, social network analysis, dyadic conflict, civil wars
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS > Dept of Political Science
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1478274
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