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Long-term trends in domestic US passenger travel: the past 110 years and the next 90

Schäfer, AW; (2017) Long-term trends in domestic US passenger travel: the past 110 years and the next 90. Transportation , 44 (2) pp. 293-310. 10.1007/s11116-015-9638-6. Green open access

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Abstract

Based upon a long-term historical data set of US passenger travel, a model is estimated to project aggregate transportation trends through 2100. One of the two model components projects total mobility (passenger-km traveled) per capita based on per person GDP and the expected utility of travel mode choices (logsum). The second model component has the functional form of a logit model, which assigns the projected travel demand to competing transportation modes. An iterative procedure ensures the average amount of travel time per person to remain at a pre-specified level through modifying the estimated value of time. The outputs from this model can be used as a first-order estimate of a future benchmark against which the effectiveness of various transportation policy measures or the impact of autonomous behavioral change can be assessed.

Type: Article
Title: Long-term trends in domestic US passenger travel: the past 110 years and the next 90
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1007/s11116-015-9638-6
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11116-015-9638-6
Language: English
Additional information: The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11116-015-9638-6.
Keywords: Passenger travel, Time series model, Mode choice, Travel time budget, Peak car, Scenario
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1477566
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