Schäfer, AW;
(2017)
Long-term trends in domestic US passenger travel: the past 110 years and the next 90.
Transportation
, 44
(2)
pp. 293-310.
10.1007/s11116-015-9638-6.
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Abstract
Based upon a long-term historical data set of US passenger travel, a model is estimated to project aggregate transportation trends through 2100. One of the two model components projects total mobility (passenger-km traveled) per capita based on per person GDP and the expected utility of travel mode choices (logsum). The second model component has the functional form of a logit model, which assigns the projected travel demand to competing transportation modes. An iterative procedure ensures the average amount of travel time per person to remain at a pre-specified level through modifying the estimated value of time. The outputs from this model can be used as a first-order estimate of a future benchmark against which the effectiveness of various transportation policy measures or the impact of autonomous behavioral change can be assessed.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Long-term trends in domestic US passenger travel: the past 110 years and the next 90 |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s11116-015-9638-6 |
| Publisher version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11116-015-9638-6 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11116-015-9638-6. |
| Keywords: | Passenger travel, Time series model, Mode choice, Travel time budget, Peak car, Scenario |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1477566 |
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