Tench, S;
Fry, H;
Gill, P;
(2016)
Spatio-temporal patterns of IED usage by the Provisional Irish Republican Army.
European Journal of Applied Mathematics
, 27
(3)
pp. 377-402.
10.1017/S0956792515000686.
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Abstract
In this paper, a unique dataset of improvised explosive device attacks during “The Troubles” in Northern Ireland (NI) is analysed via a Hawkes process model. It is found that this past dependent model is a good fit to improvised explosive device attacks yielding key insights about the nature of terrorism in NI. We also present a novel approach to quantitatively investigate some of the sociological theory surrounding the Provisional Irish Republican Army which challenges previously held assumptions concerning changes seen in the organisation. Finally, we extend our use of the Hawkes process model by considering a multidimensional version which permits both self and mutual-excitations. This allows us to test how the Provisional Irish Republican Army responded to past improvised explosive device attacks on different geographical scales from which we find evidence for the autonomy of the organisation over the six counties of NI and Belfast. By incorporating a second dataset concerning British Security Force (BSF) interventions, the multidimensional model allows us to test counter-terrorism (CT) operations in NI where we find subsequent increases in violence.
Type: | Article |
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Title: | Spatio-temporal patterns of IED usage by the Provisional Irish Republican Army |
Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
DOI: | 10.1017/S0956792515000686 |
Publisher version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0956792515000686 |
Language: | English |
Additional information: | This article has been published in a revised form in the European Journal of Applied Mathematics at http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0956792515000686. This version is free to view and download for private research and study only. Not for re-distribution, re-sale or use in derivative works. Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2016. |
Keywords: | Point process; Hawkes process; Change point; Terrorism; Counter-terrorism; Northern Ireland; Provisional Irish Republican Army |
UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Security and Crime Science UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis |
URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1477461 |
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