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Insights on past and future sea-ice evolution from combining observations and models

Stroeve, J; Notz, D; (2015) Insights on past and future sea-ice evolution from combining observations and models. Global and Planetary Change , 135 (C) pp. 119-132. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.10.011. Green open access

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Abstract

We discuss the current understanding of past and future sea-ice evolution as inferred from combining model simulations and observations. In such combined analysis, the models allow us to enhance our understanding behind the observed evolution of sea ice, while the observations allow us to assess how realistically the models represent the processes that govern sea-ice evolution in the real world. Combined, observations and models thus provide robust insights into the functioning of sea ice in the Earth's climate system, and can inform policy decisions related to the future evolution of the ice cover. We find that models and observations agree well on the sensitivity of Arctic sea ice to global warming and on the main drivers for the observed retreat. In contrast, a robust reduction of the uncertainty range of future sea-ice evolution remains difficult, in particular since the observational record is often too short to robustly examine the impact of internal variability on model biases. Process-based model evaluation and model evaluation based on seasonal-prediction systems provide promising ways to overcome these limitations.

Type: Article
Title: Insights on past and future sea-ice evolution from combining observations and models
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.10.011
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.10.011
Language: English
Additional information: (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. This manuscript is made available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Non-derivative 4.0 International license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). This license allows you to share, copy, distribute and transmit the work for personal and non-commercial use providing author and publisher attribution is clearly stated. Further details about CC BY licenses are available at http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by/4.0. Access may be initially restricted by the publisher.
Keywords: Arctic sea ice; Future climate change; Sea ice predictability
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Earth Sciences
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1474381
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