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Late Holocene Climate: Natural or Anthropogenic?

Ruddiman, WF; Fuller, DQ; Kutzbach, JE; Tzedakis, PC; Kaplan, JO; Ellis, EC; Vavrus, SJ; ... Woodbridge, J; + view all (2016) Late Holocene Climate: Natural or Anthropogenic? Reviews of Geophysics , 54 (1) pp. 93-118. 10.1002/2015RG000503. Green open access

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Abstract

For more than a decade, scientists have argued about the warmth of the current interglaciation. Was the warmth of the pre-industrial late Holocene natural in origin, the result of orbital changes that had not yet driven the system into a new glacial state? Or was it in considerable degree the result of humans intervening in the climate system through greenhouse gas emissions from early agriculture? Here we summarize new evidence that moves this debate forward by testing both hypotheses. By comparing late Holocene responses to those that occurred during previous interglaciations (in part 2), we assess whether the late Holocene responses look different (and thus anthropogenic) or similar (and thus natural). This comparison reveals anomalous (anthropogenic) signals. In part 3, we review paleoecological and archaeological syntheses that provide ground-truth evidence on early anthropogenic releases of greenhouse gases. The available data document large early anthropogenic emissions consistent with the anthropogenic ice-core anomalies, but more information is needed to constrain their size. A final section compares natural and anthropogenic interpretations of the δ13C trend in ice-core CO2.

Type: Article
Title: Late Holocene Climate: Natural or Anthropogenic?
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1002/2015RG000503
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015RG000503
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS > Dept of Geography
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS > Institute of Archaeology
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS > Institute of Archaeology > Institute of Archaeology Gordon Square
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1474025
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