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Determining the impact of regulatory policy on UK gas use using Bayesian analysis on publicly available data

Elwell, CA; Biddulph, P; Lowe, R; Oreszczyn, T; (2015) Determining the impact of regulatory policy on UK gas use using Bayesian analysis on publicly available data. Energy Policy , 86 pp. 770-783. 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.08.020. Green open access

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Abstract

This paper presents a novel method to analyse policy performance, using the example of legislation in the UK to require domestic boilers fitted since 1 April 2005 to be condensing. A technological uptake model based on the logistic equation is combined with four physical and economic models; Bayesian techniques are used for data analysis. Projections of energy savings are presented and the impact of different policy implementation dates investigated.

Type: Article
Title: Determining the impact of regulatory policy on UK gas use using Bayesian analysis on publicly available data
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.08.020
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.08.020
Additional information: © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CCBY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1473332
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