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Evaluating desktop methods for assessing liquefaction-induced damage to infrastructure for the insurance sector

Kongar, I; Rossetto, T; Giovinazzi, S; (2015) Evaluating desktop methods for assessing liquefaction-induced damage to infrastructure for the insurance sector. Presented at: 12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP12), Vancouver, Canada. Green open access

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Abstract

The current method used by insurance catastrophe models to account for liquefaction simply applies a factor to shaking-induced losses based on liquefaction susceptibility. There is a need for more sophisticated methods but they must be compatible with the data and resource constraints that insurers have to work with. This study compares five models: liquefaction potential index (LPI) calculated from shear-wave velocity; two implementations of the HAZUS software methodology; and two models based on USGS remote sensing data. Data from the September 2010 and February 2011 Canterbury (New Zealand) earthquakes is used to compare observed liquefaction occurrences to predictions from these models using binary classification performance measures. The analysis shows that the best performing model is LPI although the correlation with observations is only moderate and statistical techniques for binary classification models indicate that the model is biased towards positive predictions of liquefaction occurrence.

Type: Conference item (UNSPECIFIED)
Title: Evaluating desktop methods for assessing liquefaction-induced damage to infrastructure for the insurance sector
Event: 12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP12)
Location: Vancouver, Canada
Dates: 12 July 2015 - 15 July 2015
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.14288/1.0076102
Language: English
Additional information: Available for re-use under the terms of a Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.5 Canada (CC BY-NC-ND 2.5 CA) Licence. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ca/
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Civil, Environ and Geomatic Eng
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1471788
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