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Application of Expert Judgment to the Quantification of a Damage Scale for Reinforced Concrete Buildings Exposed to Fire

Ioannou, I; Rush, D; Bisby, L; Aspinall, W; Rossetto, T; (2015) Application of Expert Judgment to the Quantification of a Damage Scale for Reinforced Concrete Buildings Exposed to Fire. Presented at: 12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP12), Vancouver, Canada. Green open access

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Abstract

Essential in the fire fragility assessment of mid-rise reinforced concrete buildings is a relevant damage scale. This study adopts expert elicitation to construct a damage scale relevant to the slabs of these buildings by relating thresholds of four structural response measures (i.e., spalling, residual capacity, peak rebar temperature and deflection) to three qualitatively described damage states of increasing severity. The opinions of thirteen international experts are pooled together using Cooke’s Classical Model, which recognizes that uncertainty exists around each damage state threshold and seeks to quantify it. Compared to an approach which weights exert opinions equally, this Model results, in most cases, in conservative estimates of the damage state thresholds associated with well-constrained uncertainty. Areas where more research is needed are also identified. These areas include the determination of the thresholds of the first three measures when the extensively damaged slab cannot be repaired, and of the residual capacity of any of the three considered damage states.

Type: Conference item (UNSPECIFIED)
Title: Application of Expert Judgment to the Quantification of a Damage Scale for Reinforced Concrete Buildings Exposed to Fire
Event: 12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP12)
Location: Vancouver, Canada
Dates: 12 July 2015 - 15 July 2015
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.14288/1.0076114
Language: English
Additional information: Available for re-use under the terms of a Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.5 Canada (CC BY-NC-ND 2.5 CA) Licence. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ca/
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Civil, Environ and Geomatic Eng
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1471787
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