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Emission projections 2008-2012 versus National Allocation Plans II

Neuhoff, K; Ferrario, F; Grubb, M; Gabel, E; Keats, K; (2006) Emission projections 2008-2012 versus National Allocation Plans II. Climate Policy , 6 (4) pp. 395-410. 10.3763/cpol.2006.0626. Green open access

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Abstract

We compare the national allocation plans (NAPs), proposed and submitted by EU Member States as of October 2006, with our estimations for CO2 emissions by the installations covered by these NAPs. The collective allocations proposed under phase II NAPs exceed the historic trend of emissions extrapolated forward. Using our projections we find, depending on uncertainty in fuel prices, economic growth rates, performance of the non-power sector and CDM/JI availability, a 15% chance of a ‘dead market’ with emissions below cap even at zero prices. With an expected inflow of committed CDM/JI credits of 100 MtCO2/year, allowance supply will exceed demand in 50% of cases without any carbon price, and in 80% of our €20/tCO2 scenarios. Banking of allowances towards post-2012 conditions could create additional demand, but this is difficult to anticipate and conditional on policy evolution. The proposed phase II NAPs would result in low prices and only small volumes of CDM/JI would enter the EU ETS. CDM/JI would almost exclusively be public-sector funded, placing the cost of Kyoto compliance entirely upon governments.

Type: Article
Title: Emission projections 2008-2012 versus National Allocation Plans II
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.3763/cpol.2006.0626
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.3763/cpol.2006.0626
Language: English
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1471193
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