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Stepping Away from Trend Analyses for Regional Integrated Planning and Modelling

Perez, P.; Wickramasuriya, R.; Huynh, N.; van Delden, H.; (2015) Stepping Away from Trend Analyses for Regional Integrated Planning and Modelling. In: Dolan, T. and Collins, B., (eds.) International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure Conference Proceedings: 30 September - 1 October 2014 International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),Schloss Laxenburg, Vienna, Austria. (pp. pp. 193-197). UCL STEaPP: London, UK. Green open access

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Abstract

Strategic regional plans formulated by authorities aim to achieve aspirational objectives such as vibrant and connected communities, accessible and affordable transport, innovative and productive economy, and protected natural environments. But planners often lack decision support tools capable of tracking complex dynamic interactions between these various components. Many current regional planning models rely on feed-forward trend analyses. These trends are based on demographic or economic assumptions that lock-in regional growth into a unique pathway. The weaker the initial assumption is, the less plausible the evolution of other components of the regional development. In fact, useful regional planning models need to reproduce the co-evolution of land use, transport, economic and demographic dynamics. We have developed a dynamic model that includes five interconnected modules: (1) a cellular automata-based land use module, (2) a 4-step transport model with dynamic allocation of traffic, (3) a dynamic input/output economic model, (4) a synthetic population-driven demographic model, and (5) a utility module to capture the evolution of demand for energy and water as well as production of sewage and solid waste. We use a sophisticated simulation platform called GEONAMICA to build and integrate foregoing modules for the Illawarra region in New South Wales, Australia. This paper presents the ongoing development of the model, as well as preliminary results from scenario analysis. We conclude the paper by discussing intended future work.

Type: Proceedings paper
Title: Stepping Away from Trend Analyses for Regional Integrated Planning and Modelling
Event: International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure Conference (ISNGI 2014)
Location: International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schloss Laxenburg, Vienna, Austria
Dates: 30 September - 1 October 2014
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
Publisher version: http://www.ucl.ac.uk/steapp/isngi/proceedings
Language: English
Keywords: Regional Planning, Integrated Modelling, Land Use, Transportation
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > STEaPP
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1469395
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