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Towards a Co-Evolutionary Model of Demographics and Infrastructure

Zuo, C.; Birkin, M.; (2015) Towards a Co-Evolutionary Model of Demographics and Infrastructure. In: Dolan, T. and Collins, B., (eds.) International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure Conference Proceedings: 30 September - 1 October 2014 International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),Schloss Laxenburg, Vienna, Austria. (pp. pp. 169-174). UCL STEaPP: London, UK. Green open access

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Abstract

National infrastructure systems provide a foundation for economic prosperity and well-being. In addition to factors such as technological change and obsolescence, infrastructure systems need to respond to changing levels of demand, which is strongly driven by population growth. However demographic change is not independent of economic conditions, or the nature and quality of infrastructure. This research is concerned with the interrelationships between demographics, economy and infrastructure. The paper therefore develops a novel approach to modelling the evolution of a national economy in the context of changing demographics and infrastructure provision. This approach is based in a model with coupled sub-systems which are spatially disaggregate with explicit temporal dynamics. A version of the model is calibrated using a demographic component which incorporates both natural change and migration, and an economic model which recognises both labour and capital as factors of production. Infrastructure is present as an influence on accessibility, geographical attractiveness and economic productivity. The performance of the model is explored through a variety of scenarios which are offered as an initial proof of concept of the feasibility of implementing a co-evolutionary model of demographic and economic growth over a medium to long time horizon. These scenarios indicate the influence of government policies for international migration and infrastructure investment on regional development and performance.

Type: Proceedings paper
Title: Towards a Co-Evolutionary Model of Demographics and Infrastructure
Event: International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure Conference (ISNGI 2014)
Location: International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schloss Laxenburg, Vienna, Austria
Dates: 30 September - 1 October 2014
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
Publisher version: http://www.ucl.ac.uk/steapp/isngi/proceedings
Language: English
Keywords: Demographics, Economy, Infrastructure
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > STEaPP
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1469388
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