Martani, C.; Jin, Y.; Soga, K.; Scholtes, S.; (2015) A New Model for Evaluating the Future Options of Integrating Ground Source Heat Pumps in Building Construction. In: Dolan, T. and Collins, B., (eds.) International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure Conference Proceedings: 30 September - 1 October 2014 International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),Schloss Laxenburg, Vienna, Austria. (pp. pp. 163-167). UCL STEaPP: London, UK.

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Abstract

Decision-making for effective infrastructure integration is challenging because the performances of long-lasting objects often depends on conditions which are either outside the control of the designer or difficult to foresee at the design stage. In this paper we examine a new approach to estimating the range of cost-effective solutions for integrating the construction/retrofit of two or more different types of infrastructure. Infrastructure integration has many perceived benefits, but also faces serious new challenges and doubts from practitioners, particularly in sectors with complex construction process, long asset lives, uncertain cost parameters, and slow and unwieldy decision-making, such as is common with civil engineering works. We test all main options in integrating a ground source heat pump (GSHP) system with the construction and retrofit of an archetypal, office building. A new simulation model is developed and parameterized using actual data in the UK. We incorporate unavoidable uncertainties and randomness in how the decisions are triggered, and test the effectiveness of proactive measures to embed future options. The model highlights how sensitive the range of cost-effective solutions is to the setting of renewable energy incentives, discount rates, technical performance and life-cycle asset management of interdependent infrastructure. This points to a clear need for establishing appropriate regulatory standards. We expect this model to find increasing applications in the planning and designing of integrated complexes of buildings, transport facilities, renewable energy supply, water supply and waste management in dense urban areas, which are an increasingly key part of sustainable urban development.

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