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Projections of hydrology in the Tocantins-Araguaia Basin, Brazil: uncertainty assessment using the CMIP5 ensemble

Ho, JT; Thompson, JR; Brierley, C; (2016) Projections of hydrology in the Tocantins-Araguaia Basin, Brazil: uncertainty assessment using the CMIP5 ensemble. Hydrological Sciences Journal , 61 (3) pp. 551-567. 10.1080/02626667.2015.1057513. Green open access

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Abstract

A semi-distributed hydrological model is developed, calibrated and validated against unregulated river discharge from the Tocantins-Araguaia River Basin, northern Brazil. Climate change impacts are simulated using projections from the 41 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models for the period 2071–2100 under the RCP4.5 scenario. Scenario results are compared to a 1971–2000 baseline. Most climate models suggest declines in mean annual discharge although some predict increases. A large proportion suggest that the dry season experiences large declines in discharge, especially during the transition to the rising water period. Most models (>75%) suggest declines in annual minimum flows. This may have major implications for both current and planned hydropower schemes. There is greater uncertainty in projected changes in wet season and annual maximum discharges. Two techniques are investigated to reduce uncertainty in projections, but neither are able to provide more confidence in the...

Type: Article
Title: Projections of hydrology in the Tocantins-Araguaia Basin, Brazil: uncertainty assessment using the CMIP5 ensemble
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2015.1057513
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2015.1057513
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright © Informa UK Limited, an Informa Group Company. This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published online by Taylor & Francis in Hydrological Sciences Journal on 25 January 2016, available online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2015.1057513
Keywords: Tocantins-Araguaia Basin, climate change, uncertainty, hydrological modelling, CMIP5.
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS > Dept of Geography
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1469358
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