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Learning where to offend: Effects of past on future burglary locations

Bernasco, W; Ruiter, S; Johnson, SD; (2015) Learning where to offend: Effects of past on future burglary locations. Applied Geography , 60 120 - 129. 10.1016/j.apgeog.2015.03.014. Green open access

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Abstract

Informed by a growing literature on space-time patterns of repeat and near repeat burglary victimization, a crime location choice model was used to test whether burglars are attracted to areas they previously targeted. Using data in 3337 detected burglaries from one UK police force, and accounting for the distance to the offender's residence, and for other factors that make target areas attractive to burglars, it was demonstrated that burglars were more likely to commit a burglary in an area they had targeted before. This was particularly the case if the prior burglary was (very) recent. Areas near to those in which burglaries had been committed were also more likely to be selected.

Type: Article
Title: Learning where to offend: Effects of past on future burglary locations
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2015.03.014
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2015.03.014
Language: English
Additional information: NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Applied Geography. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Applied Geography, [VOL 60, 2015] DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2015.03.014. This article is published under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Non-derivative 4.0 International licence (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). This licence allows you to share, copy, distribute and transmit the work for personal and non-commercial use providing author and publisher attribution is clearly stated. Further details about CC BY licences are available at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0.
Keywords: Crime; Burglary; Location choice; Discrete choice; Repeat offending; Journey to crime
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Security and Crime Science
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1464430
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