UCL Discovery
UCL home » Library Services » Electronic resources » UCL Discovery

Order effects in judgmental forecasting

Theocharis, Z; Harvey, N; (2016) Order effects in judgmental forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting , 32 (1) pp. 44-60. 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.01.007. Green open access

[thumbnail of IJF Theocharis & Harvey Order effects Accepted version.pdf]
Preview
Text
IJF Theocharis & Harvey Order effects Accepted version.pdf

Download (1MB) | Preview

Abstract

In two experiments, forecasters produced a sequence of five forecasts from different types of time series, either from the nearest horizon to the most distant one (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) or in one of two other orders, both of which required the forecast for the most distant horizon to be made first (‘end-anchoring’). These latter two orders differed in terms of the direction of the remaining forecasts: either a horizon-increasing order (1, 2, 3, 4) or a horizon-decreasing one (4, 3, 2, 1). End-anchoring improved the forecast accuracy, especially for more distant horizons, and resulted in the trajectory of the forecast sequence being closer to the optimal one. The direction of forecasting after end-anchoring affected the forecast quality only when the optimal trajectory of the forecast sequence displayed a strong nonlinearity. End-anchoring provides a simple means of enhancing judgmental forecasts when predictions for a number of horizons are being produced from each series.

Type: Article
Title: Order effects in judgmental forecasting
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.01.007
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.01.007
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright © 2015 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. This manuscript version is made available under This article is published under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Non-derivative 4.0 International license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). This license allows you to share, copy, distribute and transmit the work for personal and non-commercial use providing author and publisher attribution is clearly stated. Further details about CC BY licenses are available at http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by/4.0. Access may be intiially restricted by the publisher.
Keywords: Judgmental forecasting, Time series, Forecasting practice, Evaluating forecasts, Forecasting education
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Div of Psychology and Lang Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Div of Psychology and Lang Sciences > Experimental Psychology
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1463530
Downloads since deposit
94Downloads
Download activity - last month
Download activity - last 12 months
Downloads by country - last 12 months

Archive Staff Only

View Item View Item