Nie, W; (2015) Cost Evaluation and Portfolio Management Optimization for Biopharmaceutical Product Development. Doctoral thesis , UCL (University College London).

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Abstract

The pharmaceutical industry is suffering from declining R&D productivity and yet biopharmaceutical firms have been attracting increasing venture capital investment. Effective R&D portfolio management can deliver above average returns under increasing costs of drug development and the high risk of clinical trial failure. This points to the need for advanced decisional tools that facilitate decision-making in R&D portfolio management by efficiently identifying optimal solutions while accounting for resource constraints such as budgets and uncertainties such as attrition rates. This thesis presents the development of such tools and their application to typical industrial portfolio management scenarios. A drug development lifecycle cost model was designed to simulate the clinical and non-clinical activities in the drug development process from the pre-clinical stage through to market approval. The model was formulated using activity-based object-oriented programming that allows the activity-specific information to be collected and summarized. The model provides the decision-maker with the ability to forecast future cash flows and their distribution across clinical trial, manufacturing, and process development activities. The evaluation model was applied to case studies to analyse the non-clinical budgets needed at each phase of development for process development and manufacturing to ensure a market success each year. These cost benchmarking case studies focused on distinct product categories, namely pharmaceutical, biopharmaceutical, and cell therapy products, under different attrition rates. A stochastic optimization tool was built that extended the drug development lifecycle cost evaluation model and linked it to combinatorial optimization algorithms to support biopharmaceutical portfolio management decision-making. The tool made use of the Monte Carlo simulation technique to capture the impact of uncertainties inherent in the drug development process. Dynamic simulation mechanisms were designed to model the progression of activities and allocation of resources. A bespoke multi-objective evolutionary algorithm was developed to locate optimal portfolio management solutions from a large decision space of possible permutations. The functionality of the tool was demonstrated using case studies with various budget and capacity constraints. Analysis of the optimization results highlighted the cash flow breakdowns across both activity categories and development stages. This work contributed to the effort of providing quantitative support to portfolio management decision-making and illustrated the benefits of combining cost evaluation with portfolio optimization to enhance process understanding and achieve better performance.

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