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A generalized regression model of arsenic variations in the shallow groundwater of Bangladesh

Shamsudduha, M; Taylor, RG; Chandler, RE; (2015) A generalized regression model of arsenic variations in the shallow groundwater of Bangladesh. Water Resources Research , 51 (1) pp. 685-703. 10.1002/2013WR014572. Green open access

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Abstract

Localized studies of arsenic (As) in Bangladesh have reached disparate conclusions regarding the impact of irrigation-induced recharge on As concentrations in shallow (≤50 m below ground level) groundwater. We construct generalized regression models (GRMs) to describe observed spatial variations in As concentrations in shallow groundwater both (i) nationally, and (ii) regionally within Holocene deposits where As concentrations in groundwater are generally high (>10 μg L). At these scales, the GRMs reveal statistically significant inverse associations between observed As concentrations and two covariates: (1) hydraulic conductivity of the shallow aquifer and (2) net increase in mean recharge between predeveloped and developed groundwater-fed irrigation periods. Further, the GRMs show that the spatial variation of groundwater As concentrations is well explained by not only surface geology but also statistical interactions (i.e., combined effects) between surface geology and mean groundwater recharge, thickness of surficial silt and clay, and well depth. Net increases in recharge result from intensive groundwater abstraction for irrigation, which induces additional recharge where it is enabled by a permeable surface geology. Collectively, these statistical associations indicate that irrigation-induced recharge serves to flush mobile As from shallow groundwater.

Type: Article
Title: A generalized regression model of arsenic variations in the shallow groundwater of Bangladesh
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1002/2013WR014572
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2013WR014572
Language: English
Additional information: © 2015. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Keywords: Arsenic; Groundwater-fed Irrigation; Recharge; Regression model; Bangladesh
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Statistical Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Inst for Risk and Disaster Reduction
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS > Dept of Geography
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1460904
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