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Risk and Uncertainty: Macroeconomic Perspective

Makarova, S; (2014) Risk and Uncertainty: Macroeconomic Perspective. (UCL SSEES Economics and Business Working Paper No.129). UCL SSEES Green open access

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Abstract

The paper discusses main concepts and definitions related to macroeconomic uncertainty as operational concept. It proposes classifications of uncertainty according to areas of application and measurements. Properties of different methodologies of assessing uncertainty used in empirical analysis are discussed. The paper also analyses positive and negative aspects of particular methods and illustrates one of the most relevant problems, which is the biasness of the experts’ based assessments, by the analysis of the National Bank of Poland Survey of Professional Forecasters. A simple uncertainty indicator based on forecast errors for the analysis of inflation uncertainty in Poland is computed and evaluated.

Type: Working / discussion paper
Title: Risk and Uncertainty: Macroeconomic Perspective
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > SSEES
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1450836
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